MyDD :: The Problem with Q-Polls MN Numbers...

The Problem with Q-Polls MN Numbers...

by TruthMatters, Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 08:31:47 AM EST

ok so the Minnesota numbers of Obama up only 2 have bugged me since they were released. they scream WRONG to me but I was eh, finally watching Morning joe today I decided I had to see for myself

the last Q poll had Obama up like 15

LIKELY VOTERS.................................. ........
Union
MINNESOTA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds

Obama 54% 12% 88% 54% 49% 58% 51% 53%
McCain 37 84 7 33 42 32 39 37
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - -
DK/NA 8 4 4 10 9 8 9 9

WHITES.................................
AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn
18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath

Obama 63% 52% 49% 47% 62% 45% 57% 38% 50%
McCain 33 39 38 42 31 45 34 55 40
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - -
DK/NA 4 8 11 10 5 9 9 6 9

this was when Obama had that huge lead a month ago, the most important thing, and the very thing I came to look at was their break down, I noticed 18-34 was 63-33 for Obama, and this fits well with Obama's lead in this range and what I would expect for minnesota

the new poll?

MINNESOTA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht HsHlds

Obama 46% 5% 86% 40% 42% 51% 45% 54%
McCain 44 90 7 48 49 38 45 36
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 3 - 2 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - -
DK/NA 8 4 6 9 6 10 8 8

AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn
18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath

Obama 50% 45% 46% 43% 51% 41% 50% 30% 41%
McCain 45 44 42 46 44 51 40 62 49
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 3 1 2 1 3 - 1 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - -
DK/NA 5 8 10 10 4 6 10 7 8

a 50-45 spread in the 18-34 range is just flat out wrong, what in the world do they think happened in this month that would swing this group?

its the same for the 35-54 group.

I have and will continue to say this and anyone who lives in MN will know

Minnesota is Obama country, and he is going to win this state. I was worried when I first saw this poll and knwe something was up and sure enough, I don't know how they got these break downs, but sorry anyone who thinks McCain will hold his own with Barack in the 18-34 age range? either they just weren't polled or they won't turn out, but 50-45 break down? I highly doubt it.

Tags: Quinnipiac Poll, Barack Obama, John McCain (all tags)

Permalink :: 18 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: The Problem with Q-Polls MN Numbers... (none / 0)

I've said it before, and I'll say it again, we need to keep an eye on the Q poll ever since Rupert Murdoch has gained a hand in it.

I totally agree with your assessment, and Minnesota appears to be a safe blue state this time around; not a leans blue, battleground state as it has been in the last few cycles.

Definition of a republican moderate---someone who want's only 50 years in Iraq.

by pollbuster on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 08:46:22 AM EST

I'm more interested in who their local contact is (2.00 / 1)

There was another funky MN poll awhile back, and it turned out that the pollster's contact in Minnesota was the Twin Cities FOX affiliate. The pollster itself wasn't sketchy, the info they were getting was.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 09:10:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah (none / 0)

I often ride through Minneapolis/St. Paul on my bike, generally through Uptown, university areas, and middle income neighborhoods, and all I see are Obama signs. I don't think I've seen a McCain sign at all. The youth demographic in this poll is way off.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 09:14:57 AM EST

Re: Yeah (none / 0)

Go to the burbs and places like St Cloud.
You see much more McCain bumper stickers.

by gil44 on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 03:17:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

On minivans? (none / 0)

I'm talking about the youth vote here. College students and the like.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 04:09:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Problem with Q-Polls MN Numbers... (none / 0)

thanks for the post I was worried

fox news was the only outlet reporting this yesterday so it had me wondering

PUMA: Particularly Undeveloped Mental Ability

by wellinformed on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 09:22:38 AM EST

Re: The Problem with Q-Polls MN Numbers... (none / 0)

It's not an impossible result. All of all of this movement is occurring among indies, and within that group the most likely to flip were men and those 18-34, and what might be happening Republican leaners who said told pollsters they'd vote for Obama last month are going back to McCain (and why is this effect more pronounced in MN? possibly because of the Franken-Coleman race, maybe the McCain campaign is doing a better job of painting Obama as a generic Dem, could be something else).

As a rule I don't like dismissing polls as outliers, because the temptation to disregard the ones you don't like becomes overwhelming. If the above is happening, this is clearly something the Dems need to know. Obama hasn't done a good job during the past month of building on his post-partisan theme. One possible effect of the FISA flap which might have gone unnoticed is the extent to which it reminded voters that Obama still pitches himself as a progressive in a Democratic party which is upset with him because they perceive he's not progressive enough.

And then a lot turns on how one reads the mood of the country. I think the GOP now has a tarnished brand. I don't think the broad electorate is more supportive of progressive politics than it's been for the past twenty years. If the Dems win big this fall they could build such support, but they don't start with it, and the GOP tactic all along has been to capitalize on this.

by IncognitoErgoSum on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 09:34:12 AM EST

Re: The Problem with Q-Polls MN Numbers... (2.00 / 1)

Obama has been very weak in countering McCain's "energy" arguments... extremely weak... he has responded, but the response has been quite tepid.

There are a hundred ways to attack this bogus "energy" plan, and Obama has chosen to do none of them. I simply don't understand why. I certainly hope his campaign will get the wakeup call!

by LordMike on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 09:38:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Easy enough (none / 0)

Why fire your big guns when you've got months to fight yet?

He's been busy laying the groundwork of a huge 50-state initiative while his opponent makes daily gaffes. There's no reason to fire on all cylanders yet.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 09:43:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Problem with Q-Polls MN Numbers... (none / 0)

The Q poll numbers on energy policy are fascinating. Totally agree with your point. McCain has stolen a march on the Democrats. These polls make a convincing case, though, that the Dems could turn the tables by pushing renewable energy for all its worth. The GOP has no credibility on this issue.

I'll be happy when Obama gets back to the states. This trip might have been necessary, but this election isn't going to turn on foreign policy.

by IncognitoErgoSum on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 10:14:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Problem with Q-Polls MN Numbers... (none / 0)

I agree
Obama needs to be faster and more aggressive

by gil44 on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 03:21:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Problem with Q-Polls MN Numbers... (none / 0)

Do you disagree that Obama had to overcome his foreign policy creds first?
May I suggest you involve yourself in your local Obama campaign to find out what's really going on..

"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"

by nogo postal on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 06:11:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Problem with Q-Polls MN Numbers... (2.00 / 1)

maybe in other states but not in MN,

I will wait for more polls, but a 50-45 split in that age group is just wrong, McCain is not appealing to the Minnesota youths,

part of the reason Obama killed Hillary is here is the youths turned out to caucus, I will wait for more polling,

but a 50-45 split in the 18-34 age range just rings untrue, and i bet other Minnesotans would agree.

Congratulations to Barack Obama, the presumptive Presumptive Democratic Nominee

by TruthMatters on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 09:44:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes, it is an impossible result. (none / 0)

Very little ties Franken and Obama right now. That's not it; the same polls have been showing Franken low and Obama high. Franken's problems are limited to himself as of this moment; there's no way he's dragging Obama's coattails.

Most people couldn't give a shit about FISA, especially now that it's over and done with. Their lives and their wallets don't change.

I regard every poll as an outlier if it doesn't have a plausable reason to show its results. Yes, even the ones that favor Obama.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 09:47:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, it is an impossible result. (2.00 / 1)

Just to be clear, I'm not suggesting that Franken is dragging Obama down. It's more like this. The GOP has portrayed Franken as a generic Dem (or, rather, the Republican version of what a generic Dem is and why a voter shouldn't vote for him or her), that's had some effect, and they're now doing the same to Obama, that hasn't worked so far but perhaps it's starting to gain traction.

I don't think the Dems are in serious danger of losing MN. This Republican narrative has power, though, and the Dems shouldn't pretend that it doesn't. One way for the Dems to counterattack, indeed, is to back Franken full tilt (because if they can defeat this narrative in MN with this candidate they can do it anywhere). Just my sense of it.

by IncognitoErgoSum on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 10:31:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

We're getting there (2.00 / 1)

Frankens ads are very good, and he's starting to pick up some momentum tying Coleman to Bush.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 10:43:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

the polls are nothing (none / 0)

But a way for the media to push a horse race meme.

by highgrade on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 10:46:17 AM EST

Re: The Problem with Q-Polls MN Numbers... (none / 0)

It would also be interesting to see where, geographical those polled came from. It could simply be over-weighting/polling to the South and West portions of the State. Obama will crush in the Twinkies (and Rochester of course) and northern portions (St. Louis etc.). My wife was concerned about the poll, myself, I need to see a few more saying the same thing before I'll take it seriously.

by notedgeways on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 11:07:02 AM EST

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